A number of people have asked that I repeat this exercise, so here we go.
How many points will we need?
As always, everyone will have different views on this. Last season I set a target of 37. In the event, 34 would have been sufficient to stay up, although for those who base it on the club that finished 17th, they actually got 36. There is a good argument for taking the number of points gained by the team that are currently 17th, and projecting that forward as the target. Currently, the 17th club have 8 points - exactly one point per match. If this were to be continued throughout the season, the 17th club would finish on 38.
So, we have arguments for anything from 34 to 38 points. A figure of 34 seems rather low to me; last year was a bit of a freak in that number being sufficient. Similarly, 38 seems a little on the high side - you would have only required this number to stay up once in the last seven years (when in fact even 38 was insufficient, as you needed 40). So after a lot of mulling it over, I am going to stick with the 37 points I set last year. You, of course, may have different views, so it will be interesting to read them.
How can we win those points?
The positive news is that it's seemingly rather easier than last year. When I started the thread last season, we were only on 3 points; this time around, we have already reached 8. So we "only" need to find a further 29 points throughout the season. For the purposes of the calculator, I have assumed a target of 19 more points at home and 10 more points away.
To achieve the target of 19 points at home, I have projected 5 wins and 4 draws
To achieve the target of 10 points away, I have projected 2 wins and 4 draws.
Can I remind everyone that these are not predictions.They are projections of the sort of results we would require to earn 29 points, to enable people to keep track.
Looking at these projections, it's clear that there's a period in the middle of the season that is key to our success. I've projected a win in our next home game against Sunderland, but then no further wins until we travel to QPR - 9 matches later! But that QPR game begins what I hope will be a fruitful period; over those next 7 matches I have projected 4 wins and 2 draws. That is definitely the period when I'll be looking for us to pick up points, because in the final 13 matches I have only projected 2 more wins.
Although 29 more points might seem like a reasonably comfortable target, a study of the fixtures shows it is not that easy. Please feel free to post your own predictions for results for the remainder of the season. Don't forget, it’s your thread just as much as mine.
Opponent............................... Predict.... Result..... Target +/-...... Overall
WBA (A)................................. .....D.......
Sunderland (H)....................... .....W......
Man U (A).............................. ......L.......
Liverpool (H).......................... ......L.......
Swansea (A)........................... ......L.......
Aston Villa (H)......................... .....D.......
Spurs (A)............................... ......L.......
Stoke (H)................................ .....D.......
Man City (A)............................ ......L.......
Southampton (H).................... ......L.......
QPR (A).................................. .....W......
Aston Villa (A)......................... .....D.......
Spurs (H)............................... ......L.......
Burnley (A)............................ .....W......
Everton (H)............................ .....W......
Leicester (A)........................... .....D.......
Newcastle (H)........................ .....W......
Arsenal (H)............................ ......L.......
West Ham (A)........................ ......L.......
Southampton (A)................... ......L.......
QPR (H)................................. .....W......
Stoke (A)............................... ......L.......
Man City (H).......................... ......L.......
Sunderland (A)....................... .....D.......
WBA (H)................................. .....W......
Hull (H).................................. .....D.......
Chelsea (A)............................. ......L.......
Man U (H)............................... ......L.......
Liverpool (A)........................... ......L.......
Swansea (H)............................ .....D.......
How many points will we need?
As always, everyone will have different views on this. Last season I set a target of 37. In the event, 34 would have been sufficient to stay up, although for those who base it on the club that finished 17th, they actually got 36. There is a good argument for taking the number of points gained by the team that are currently 17th, and projecting that forward as the target. Currently, the 17th club have 8 points - exactly one point per match. If this were to be continued throughout the season, the 17th club would finish on 38.
So, we have arguments for anything from 34 to 38 points. A figure of 34 seems rather low to me; last year was a bit of a freak in that number being sufficient. Similarly, 38 seems a little on the high side - you would have only required this number to stay up once in the last seven years (when in fact even 38 was insufficient, as you needed 40). So after a lot of mulling it over, I am going to stick with the 37 points I set last year. You, of course, may have different views, so it will be interesting to read them.
How can we win those points?
The positive news is that it's seemingly rather easier than last year. When I started the thread last season, we were only on 3 points; this time around, we have already reached 8. So we "only" need to find a further 29 points throughout the season. For the purposes of the calculator, I have assumed a target of 19 more points at home and 10 more points away.
To achieve the target of 19 points at home, I have projected 5 wins and 4 draws
To achieve the target of 10 points away, I have projected 2 wins and 4 draws.
Can I remind everyone that these are not predictions.They are projections of the sort of results we would require to earn 29 points, to enable people to keep track.
Looking at these projections, it's clear that there's a period in the middle of the season that is key to our success. I've projected a win in our next home game against Sunderland, but then no further wins until we travel to QPR - 9 matches later! But that QPR game begins what I hope will be a fruitful period; over those next 7 matches I have projected 4 wins and 2 draws. That is definitely the period when I'll be looking for us to pick up points, because in the final 13 matches I have only projected 2 more wins.
Although 29 more points might seem like a reasonably comfortable target, a study of the fixtures shows it is not that easy. Please feel free to post your own predictions for results for the remainder of the season. Don't forget, it’s your thread just as much as mine.
Opponent............................... Predict.... Result..... Target +/-...... Overall
WBA (A)................................. .....D.......
Sunderland (H)....................... .....W......
Man U (A).............................. ......L.......
Liverpool (H).......................... ......L.......
Swansea (A)........................... ......L.......
Aston Villa (H)......................... .....D.......
Spurs (A)............................... ......L.......
Stoke (H)................................ .....D.......
Man City (A)............................ ......L.......
Southampton (H).................... ......L.......
QPR (A).................................. .....W......
Aston Villa (A)......................... .....D.......
Spurs (H)............................... ......L.......
Burnley (A)............................ .....W......
Everton (H)............................ .....W......
Leicester (A)........................... .....D.......
Newcastle (H)........................ .....W......
Arsenal (H)............................ ......L.......
West Ham (A)........................ ......L.......
Southampton (A)................... ......L.......
QPR (H)................................. .....W......
Stoke (A)............................... ......L.......
Man City (H).......................... ......L.......
Sunderland (A)....................... .....D.......
WBA (H)................................. .....W......
Hull (H).................................. .....D.......
Chelsea (A)............................. ......L.......
Man U (H)............................... ......L.......
Liverpool (A)........................... ......L.......
Swansea (H)............................ .....D.......
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