Yes it's two for the price of one this season :p. And it will be interesting to see which of them takes on most relevance as the season unfolds. Let's start with the traditional calculator:
Relegation Avoidance Calculator
Seemingly, it gets simpler. When I started the thread two years ago, we had only won 3 points, so I had to find a further 34 to reach the target of 37 I had set. Last year, setting the same target, we were already on 8 when the thread started, so we only had to find a further 29. This time around we start with 15 already in our locker. But what should the target be?
Having set it at 37 for the last two seasons, on both occasions this arguably turned out to be a little too high. Two seasons ago, 34 would have been sufficient to stay up, although for those who base it on the club that finished 17th, they actually got 36. Last season the 17th club got to 38, but they could have stayed up with 36. With all the newly promoted clubs having made decent starts this time, I personally suspect the tussle around the 17th spot will be even more competitive, with 36 proving insufficient. Having considered all the factors, I've decided to stick with the 37 points target I've set in the past. You, of course, may have different views, so it will be interesting to read them.
So, to get to 37, we will need to find "only" 22 more. I realise we currently have a better record away than at home; but we should be looking for the home form to improve. Consequently, I've looked for 13 points from the home games (four wins and a draw) and 9 points from the away games (two wins and three draws). Naturally, because of our good start, and the limited number of points we need to find, that leaves me projecting defeats in games that you will expect us to win.
Can I remind everyone that these are not predictions. They are projections of the sort of results we would require to get to the 37 points target, to enable people to keep track of our progress.
Relegation Avoidance Calculator
Opponent......................... Project.... Result.... Target +/-..... Overall
West Ham (H)................... .....L........
Leicester (A)..................... .....L........
Man U (H)......................... .....L........
Liverpool (A)..................... .....L........
Sunderland (H)................. .....W......
Newcastle (H)................... .....W......
Everton (A)....................... .....L........
Southampton (H).............. ......L........
Stoke (A).......................... .....L........
Bournemouth (A).............. ......D.......
Swansea (H)...................... .....L........
Chelsea (H)....................... .....W......
Aston Villa (A).................. ......D.......
Man City (A)...................... .....L........
Tottenham (H).................. .....L........
Bournemouth (H).............. .....W......
Swansea (A)...................... .....L........
Watford (H)...................... .....L........
West Brom (A).................. .....D.......
Sunderland (A)................. .....W......
Liverpool (H)..................... .....L........
Man U (A)......................... .....L........
Leicester (H)..................... .....L........
West Ham (A)................... .....L........
Norwich (H)...................... .....L........
Arsenal (A)....................... .....L........
Everton (H)....................... .....L........
Newcastle (A)................... .....W......
Stoke (H)......................... .....D.......
Southampton (A).............. .....L........
Top 7 Finish Calculator
I was going to do a Top 10 Finish Calculator, but because of all the excitement engendered by our start, I've done it as a Top 7 instead, which last year resulted in Europa League qualification. Personally, I believe a Top 7 finish is probably unrealistic, because to achieve it we would need to finish above at least two of the following - the two Manchester clubs, the two Merseyside clubs, Arsenal, Spurs, Chelsea & Southampton. But let's see how we get on.
To select the number of points required to finish 7th is something of a lottery. For some strange reason there always seems to be a gap between 7th and 8th. Last season it was 4 points, and in the previous seasons it has been 8, 12, 4 and 5 points respectively. So, for example, whereas last season Southampton finished 7th with 60 points, in theory 57 would have been sufficient. However, in recent years the 7th team rarely gets under 60 points - the previous season they got 64 and the one before that they reached 61. Taking various factors into consideration, I've set a target of 61 points this season. Again, you may have a very different view.
So, 61 points requires us to find a further 46. To get this total I've looked for another 28 at home (eight wins and 4 draws) and 18 away (4 wins and six draws). The projections are based on current form, and very curiously to reach that target the calculator still has us losing the first three matches!!! That's because in those matches we meet three teams whose current form is good.
Please feel free to post your own predictions for results for the remainder of the season. Don't forget, it’s your thread just as much as mine.
Top 7 Finish Calculator
Opponent......................... Project.... Result.... Target +/-..... Overall
West Ham (H)................... .....L........
Leicester (A)..................... .....L........
Man U (H)......................... .....L........
Liverpool (A)..................... .....D.......
Sunderland (H)................. .....W......
Newcastle (H)................... .....W......
Everton (A)....................... .....D.......
Southampton (H).............. ......D.......
Stoke (A).......................... .....D.......
Bournemouth (A).............. ......D.......
Swansea (H)..................... .....W......
Chelsea (H)...................... .....W......
Aston Villa (A).................. .....W......
Man City (A)...................... .....L........
Tottenham (H).................. .....D.......
Bournemouth (H).............. .....W......
Swansea (A)..................... .....D.......
Watford (H)...................... .....W......
West Brom (A).................. .....W......
Sunderland (A)................. .....W......
Liverpool (H)..................... .....D.......
Man U (A)......................... .....L........
Leicester (H)..................... .....L........
West Ham (A)................... .....L........
Norwich (H)..................... .....W......
Arsenal (A)....................... .....L........
Everton (H)...................... .....D.......
Newcastle (A)................... .....W......
Stoke (H)......................... .....W......
Southampton (A).............. .....D.......
Relegation Avoidance Calculator
Seemingly, it gets simpler. When I started the thread two years ago, we had only won 3 points, so I had to find a further 34 to reach the target of 37 I had set. Last year, setting the same target, we were already on 8 when the thread started, so we only had to find a further 29. This time around we start with 15 already in our locker. But what should the target be?
Having set it at 37 for the last two seasons, on both occasions this arguably turned out to be a little too high. Two seasons ago, 34 would have been sufficient to stay up, although for those who base it on the club that finished 17th, they actually got 36. Last season the 17th club got to 38, but they could have stayed up with 36. With all the newly promoted clubs having made decent starts this time, I personally suspect the tussle around the 17th spot will be even more competitive, with 36 proving insufficient. Having considered all the factors, I've decided to stick with the 37 points target I've set in the past. You, of course, may have different views, so it will be interesting to read them.
So, to get to 37, we will need to find "only" 22 more. I realise we currently have a better record away than at home; but we should be looking for the home form to improve. Consequently, I've looked for 13 points from the home games (four wins and a draw) and 9 points from the away games (two wins and three draws). Naturally, because of our good start, and the limited number of points we need to find, that leaves me projecting defeats in games that you will expect us to win.
Can I remind everyone that these are not predictions. They are projections of the sort of results we would require to get to the 37 points target, to enable people to keep track of our progress.
Relegation Avoidance Calculator
Opponent......................... Project.... Result.... Target +/-..... Overall
West Ham (H)................... .....L........
Leicester (A)..................... .....L........
Man U (H)......................... .....L........
Liverpool (A)..................... .....L........
Sunderland (H)................. .....W......
Newcastle (H)................... .....W......
Everton (A)....................... .....L........
Southampton (H).............. ......L........
Stoke (A).......................... .....L........
Bournemouth (A).............. ......D.......
Swansea (H)...................... .....L........
Chelsea (H)....................... .....W......
Aston Villa (A).................. ......D.......
Man City (A)...................... .....L........
Tottenham (H).................. .....L........
Bournemouth (H).............. .....W......
Swansea (A)...................... .....L........
Watford (H)...................... .....L........
West Brom (A).................. .....D.......
Sunderland (A)................. .....W......
Liverpool (H)..................... .....L........
Man U (A)......................... .....L........
Leicester (H)..................... .....L........
West Ham (A)................... .....L........
Norwich (H)...................... .....L........
Arsenal (A)....................... .....L........
Everton (H)....................... .....L........
Newcastle (A)................... .....W......
Stoke (H)......................... .....D.......
Southampton (A).............. .....L........
Top 7 Finish Calculator
I was going to do a Top 10 Finish Calculator, but because of all the excitement engendered by our start, I've done it as a Top 7 instead, which last year resulted in Europa League qualification. Personally, I believe a Top 7 finish is probably unrealistic, because to achieve it we would need to finish above at least two of the following - the two Manchester clubs, the two Merseyside clubs, Arsenal, Spurs, Chelsea & Southampton. But let's see how we get on.
To select the number of points required to finish 7th is something of a lottery. For some strange reason there always seems to be a gap between 7th and 8th. Last season it was 4 points, and in the previous seasons it has been 8, 12, 4 and 5 points respectively. So, for example, whereas last season Southampton finished 7th with 60 points, in theory 57 would have been sufficient. However, in recent years the 7th team rarely gets under 60 points - the previous season they got 64 and the one before that they reached 61. Taking various factors into consideration, I've set a target of 61 points this season. Again, you may have a very different view.
So, 61 points requires us to find a further 46. To get this total I've looked for another 28 at home (eight wins and 4 draws) and 18 away (4 wins and six draws). The projections are based on current form, and very curiously to reach that target the calculator still has us losing the first three matches!!! That's because in those matches we meet three teams whose current form is good.
Please feel free to post your own predictions for results for the remainder of the season. Don't forget, it’s your thread just as much as mine.
Top 7 Finish Calculator
Opponent......................... Project.... Result.... Target +/-..... Overall
West Ham (H)................... .....L........
Leicester (A)..................... .....L........
Man U (H)......................... .....L........
Liverpool (A)..................... .....D.......
Sunderland (H)................. .....W......
Newcastle (H)................... .....W......
Everton (A)....................... .....D.......
Southampton (H).............. ......D.......
Stoke (A).......................... .....D.......
Bournemouth (A).............. ......D.......
Swansea (H)..................... .....W......
Chelsea (H)...................... .....W......
Aston Villa (A).................. .....W......
Man City (A)...................... .....L........
Tottenham (H).................. .....D.......
Bournemouth (H).............. .....W......
Swansea (A)..................... .....D.......
Watford (H)...................... .....W......
West Brom (A).................. .....W......
Sunderland (A)................. .....W......
Liverpool (H)..................... .....D.......
Man U (A)......................... .....L........
Leicester (H)..................... .....L........
West Ham (A)................... .....L........
Norwich (H)..................... .....W......
Arsenal (A)....................... .....L........
Everton (H)...................... .....D.......
Newcastle (A)................... .....W......
Stoke (H)......................... .....W......
Southampton (A).............. .....D.......
0 commentaires:
Enregistrer un commentaire