Here is the latest relegation chances as calculated by European Club Index:
Simon Gleave - head of analysis at Gracenote Sports- says that Palace's prospects of relegation are down to 0.16% following the win v Brighton on Saturday.
He explains that one of the keys to this is that there are a lot of teams between Palace and the relegation places. This reduces probabilities quite a bit as it requires too many clubs to perform much better than they have been to date in order to overtake Palace.
Discussing how many points will be needed this year to avoid relegation, he argues that it will be below 40 - he continues:
The reason why it is unlikely to be higher [than 39] is that it would require at least four teams - all of a sudden - to perform better than they have done so far this season. We can look at the last 10 matches of each team to get an idea of their form:
Norwich - 9 points
Aston Villa - 10 points
Bournemouth - 8 points
Watford - 15 points
West Ham - 8 points
Brighton - 8 points
So, the only one of these teams which has scored more than a point per match over the previous 10 matches is Watford, but four will need to exceed this average in the final 10 matches in order to make 40 points insufficient for staying up. Here are the teams just above them for comparison:
Newcastle - 7 points (repeat this and they stay under 40)
Southampton - 16 points
Crystal Palace - 13 points
Everton - 18 points
Arsenal - 15 points
Burnley - 14 points
Form over 10 matches can vary of course for a few clubs but not usually for the whole bunch at once. Looking at these figures, we can probably conclude that Watford are the most likely to survive the relegation battle and if an outsider is to be sucked in, that would be Newcastle. It is also pretty obvious from these figures that the teams in group 1 are generally worse than those in group 2, just as the table says they are.
Our Euro Club Index (which is calculated over a longer term than just the last 10 matches or this season) says that the worst six teams in the Premier League are Norwich, Brighton, Bournemouth, Villa, Watford and West Ham - sound familiar?
Cheers,
Simon
Simon Gleave - head of analysis at Gracenote Sports- says that Palace's prospects of relegation are down to 0.16% following the win v Brighton on Saturday.
He explains that one of the keys to this is that there are a lot of teams between Palace and the relegation places. This reduces probabilities quite a bit as it requires too many clubs to perform much better than they have been to date in order to overtake Palace.
Discussing how many points will be needed this year to avoid relegation, he argues that it will be below 40 - he continues:
The reason why it is unlikely to be higher [than 39] is that it would require at least four teams - all of a sudden - to perform better than they have done so far this season. We can look at the last 10 matches of each team to get an idea of their form:
Norwich - 9 points
Aston Villa - 10 points
Bournemouth - 8 points
Watford - 15 points
West Ham - 8 points
Brighton - 8 points
So, the only one of these teams which has scored more than a point per match over the previous 10 matches is Watford, but four will need to exceed this average in the final 10 matches in order to make 40 points insufficient for staying up. Here are the teams just above them for comparison:
Newcastle - 7 points (repeat this and they stay under 40)
Southampton - 16 points
Crystal Palace - 13 points
Everton - 18 points
Arsenal - 15 points
Burnley - 14 points
Form over 10 matches can vary of course for a few clubs but not usually for the whole bunch at once. Looking at these figures, we can probably conclude that Watford are the most likely to survive the relegation battle and if an outsider is to be sucked in, that would be Newcastle. It is also pretty obvious from these figures that the teams in group 1 are generally worse than those in group 2, just as the table says they are.
Our Euro Club Index (which is calculated over a longer term than just the last 10 matches or this season) says that the worst six teams in the Premier League are Norwich, Brighton, Bournemouth, Villa, Watford and West Ham - sound familiar?
Cheers,
Simon
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