Given we are closer to 5th than we are to 18th I thought we should have a change this year and have a Let's push for Europe calculator.
Other than Liverpool, the table is a lot closer than in previous years, and the teams in 5th-7th have fewer points than normal at this stage (20 games played).
5th place hasn't had as few as 31 points since 2003/4, when 5th at end of season had 56 points, and 6th/7th as few as 30 since 2010/11. In most years the end of season points for these positions is very close to having the same ppg as after 20 games.
I'm therefore setting the points target at 58 (which is 1 more than 30 * 38 / 20). This should be good enough to get 6th place, and I will assume this will qualify for Europe due to one of the top 4 winning one of the 2 cups (Man City and Leicester are both in the semis of the League Cup). It may be that 7th is good enough, and I will take the chances of that happening as balancing the times that 6th is not good enough.
Given this assumption, we need 31 points from 18 games. We could do this with either 9 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats, or 8W 7D 3L. I'm going to pick the former.
As ever the below are the sorts of results we need, not a prediction of what will happen.
I will take no responsibility if we have an immediate downturn in form, though just in case I've also done a similar set of results to get 38 points and avoid relegation. I'll swap those results in if we ever drop as far as 16th!
Anyway enough babbling:
Other than Liverpool, the table is a lot closer than in previous years, and the teams in 5th-7th have fewer points than normal at this stage (20 games played).
5th place hasn't had as few as 31 points since 2003/4, when 5th at end of season had 56 points, and 6th/7th as few as 30 since 2010/11. In most years the end of season points for these positions is very close to having the same ppg as after 20 games.
I'm therefore setting the points target at 58 (which is 1 more than 30 * 38 / 20). This should be good enough to get 6th place, and I will assume this will qualify for Europe due to one of the top 4 winning one of the 2 cups (Man City and Leicester are both in the semis of the League Cup). It may be that 7th is good enough, and I will take the chances of that happening as balancing the times that 6th is not good enough.
Given this assumption, we need 31 points from 18 games. We could do this with either 9 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats, or 8W 7D 3L. I'm going to pick the former.
As ever the below are the sorts of results we need, not a prediction of what will happen.
I will take no responsibility if we have an immediate downturn in form, though just in case I've also done a similar set of results to get 38 points and avoid relegation. I'll swap those results in if we ever drop as far as 16th!
Anyway enough babbling:
Code:
Team Projected Actual Target +/- Overall
Norwich (a) W
Arsenal (h) W
Man City (a) L
Southampton (h) W
Sheff Utd (h) D
Everton (a) D
Newcastle (h) W
Brighton (a) W
Watford (h) W
Bournemouth (a) W
Liverpool (a) L
Burnley (h) W
Leicester (a) L
Chelsea (h) L
Aston Villa (a) W
Man Utd (h) L
Wolves (a) D
Spurs (h) D
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