Not sure how much news of events in HK is reaching the UK, given the horror show of Brexit and political turmoil at home.
The government here, grown used to getting its own pro-Beijing way by nudging authoritarian changes slowly-slowly, imagined it could pass a new law permitting extradition to China by relying on the perceived apathy of the people to protest, the apparent failure of the occupy movement in 2014 and the success of measures implemented in the past few years to stuff the legislative council (LegCo) with pro-Beijing lawmakers and ban or jail “pro Hong Kong” candidates.
1M then a few weeks later 2M people (over ¼ of the population) rocked up to peacefully protest the extradition law in June, but when Carrie Lam, the HK Chief Executive, dismissed the protesters’ demands and has refused to compromise whatsoever or even discuss current events (save for weak Chinese Communist Party (CCP) approved statements), an escalating cycle of violence has ensued including the invasion and trashing of LegCo (imagine parliament being stormed) and now every couple of days major clashes between police and thousands of young protesters at locations all over the territory.
China has badly misjudged the depth of feeling in HK amongst ordinary folk and the sense amongst mostly young people who do not identify with the nation of China and perceive diminishing prospects for themselves – 22 years into the 50 years of “one country two systems” protecting HK’s independent judiciary and freedoms (such as speech and protest) under the 1984 Joint Declaration between the UK and China which the CCP has now declared a “historical document”. Unlike the Occupy movement which split opinions down the middle, there’s perhaps 80% of the population, of all ages, who support the “anti-extradition” movement (with 20% preferring the status quo or adopting a “China will do what the **** it wants anyway” position).
For the CCP the primary goal is self-preservation, with HK supposedly the shining example of “one country two systems” that will deliver the secondary goal of unification with Taiwan. As the China economy begins to slide there’s a feeling that events in HK provide a convenient distraction from this and events in Xinjiang. Whilst Britain (and the US e.g. Marco Rubio) have made noises supportive of the protests the expectation is that realpolitik will win and HK is essentially on it own. The CCP / HK government doesn’t appear to know what to do (Carrie Lam has been studiously hiding for weeks now – imagine a national crisis and Boris not even appearing in public). Do they send in the PLA? Trigger Tiananmen #2? Hope for protest fatigue and the problem goes away? Come to the negotiating table prepared to listen and make concessions?
Uncertain times in HK as nobody knows how this is going to play out.
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(image today from SCMP)
The government here, grown used to getting its own pro-Beijing way by nudging authoritarian changes slowly-slowly, imagined it could pass a new law permitting extradition to China by relying on the perceived apathy of the people to protest, the apparent failure of the occupy movement in 2014 and the success of measures implemented in the past few years to stuff the legislative council (LegCo) with pro-Beijing lawmakers and ban or jail “pro Hong Kong” candidates.
1M then a few weeks later 2M people (over ¼ of the population) rocked up to peacefully protest the extradition law in June, but when Carrie Lam, the HK Chief Executive, dismissed the protesters’ demands and has refused to compromise whatsoever or even discuss current events (save for weak Chinese Communist Party (CCP) approved statements), an escalating cycle of violence has ensued including the invasion and trashing of LegCo (imagine parliament being stormed) and now every couple of days major clashes between police and thousands of young protesters at locations all over the territory.
China has badly misjudged the depth of feeling in HK amongst ordinary folk and the sense amongst mostly young people who do not identify with the nation of China and perceive diminishing prospects for themselves – 22 years into the 50 years of “one country two systems” protecting HK’s independent judiciary and freedoms (such as speech and protest) under the 1984 Joint Declaration between the UK and China which the CCP has now declared a “historical document”. Unlike the Occupy movement which split opinions down the middle, there’s perhaps 80% of the population, of all ages, who support the “anti-extradition” movement (with 20% preferring the status quo or adopting a “China will do what the **** it wants anyway” position).
For the CCP the primary goal is self-preservation, with HK supposedly the shining example of “one country two systems” that will deliver the secondary goal of unification with Taiwan. As the China economy begins to slide there’s a feeling that events in HK provide a convenient distraction from this and events in Xinjiang. Whilst Britain (and the US e.g. Marco Rubio) have made noises supportive of the protests the expectation is that realpolitik will win and HK is essentially on it own. The CCP / HK government doesn’t appear to know what to do (Carrie Lam has been studiously hiding for weeks now – imagine a national crisis and Boris not even appearing in public). Do they send in the PLA? Trigger Tiananmen #2? Hope for protest fatigue and the problem goes away? Come to the negotiating table prepared to listen and make concessions?
Uncertain times in HK as nobody knows how this is going to play out.
To view the link you have to Register or Login
To view the link you have to Register or Login
(image today from SCMP)
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