First of all, here is the up to date relegation chances table provided by Simon Gleave, head of analysis at Gracenote.
Simon has also produced this fascinating table, which shows how Palace have massively underperformed this Season:
Simon offers this:
"Here is the list [of Palace results against expectation] so you can judge for yourself. Anything not on this list produced the expected result given the chances for both sides. [Despite some possible errors] overall the -17 is a good estimate in my opinion. Palace's [underperformance] really does look like bad luck.
One other thing on this. Palace's -17 points is ENTIRELY due to the attack which has scored 19 goals fewer than we would expect based on the chances.
Huddersfield (H) Lost, should have won -3
Swansea (H) Lost, should have drawn -4
Burnley (A) Lost, should have won -7
Southampton (H) Lost, should have drawn -8
CHELSEA (H) WON, SHOULD HAVE DRAWN -6
Newcastle (A) Lost, should have drawn -7
West Ham (H) Drawn, should have won -9
Tottenham (A) Lost, should have drawn -10
WEST BROM (A) DRAWN, SHOULD HAVE LOST -9
Bournemouth (H) Drawn, should have won -11
Swansea (A) Drawn, should have won -13
Man City (H) Drawn, should have won -15
WEST HAM (A) DRAWN, SHOULD HAVE LOST -14
Newcastle (H) Drawn, should have won -16
Everton (A) Lost, should have drawn -17
Liverpool (H) Lost, should have drawn -18
Bournemouth (A) DRAWN, SHOULD HAVE LOST -17"
Before anyone feels inclined to launch into Benteke with a predictable torrent of abuse, it is instructive to consider this from Simon:
"Benteke, Zaha, McArthur, Tomkins, Dann, Cabaye, Schlupp and Puncheon all have fewer goals than we would expect given the opportunities they have had. While there will be some difference in finishing ability between recognised strikers and the rest, the data suggests that this is very small indeed (primarily because you don't often have your lumbering centre back running through one-on-one with the keeper or your 5' 6" midfielder trying to get on the end of crosses). Basically players get the sorts of chances they always get and thus score over the long term as many as our data suggests they will."
Simon suggests that Benteke's lack of goals is temporary, and that we should be patient. He says:
"At Liverpool in 2015/2016 he should have scored 10 goals and got 9.
At Palace last season, he should have had 16 but scored 15.
At Palace this season, he should have scored 11 or 12 but has 2.
I've seen this pattern before, albeit perhaps not so extreme and [goal scorers] always bounce back. Selling him would mean:
a) Getting less than he is really worth
b) Probably losing a top quality striker"
Simon has also produced this fascinating table, which shows how Palace have massively underperformed this Season:
Simon offers this:
"Here is the list [of Palace results against expectation] so you can judge for yourself. Anything not on this list produced the expected result given the chances for both sides. [Despite some possible errors] overall the -17 is a good estimate in my opinion. Palace's [underperformance] really does look like bad luck.
One other thing on this. Palace's -17 points is ENTIRELY due to the attack which has scored 19 goals fewer than we would expect based on the chances.
Huddersfield (H) Lost, should have won -3
Swansea (H) Lost, should have drawn -4
Burnley (A) Lost, should have won -7
Southampton (H) Lost, should have drawn -8
CHELSEA (H) WON, SHOULD HAVE DRAWN -6
Newcastle (A) Lost, should have drawn -7
West Ham (H) Drawn, should have won -9
Tottenham (A) Lost, should have drawn -10
WEST BROM (A) DRAWN, SHOULD HAVE LOST -9
Bournemouth (H) Drawn, should have won -11
Swansea (A) Drawn, should have won -13
Man City (H) Drawn, should have won -15
WEST HAM (A) DRAWN, SHOULD HAVE LOST -14
Newcastle (H) Drawn, should have won -16
Everton (A) Lost, should have drawn -17
Liverpool (H) Lost, should have drawn -18
Bournemouth (A) DRAWN, SHOULD HAVE LOST -17"
Before anyone feels inclined to launch into Benteke with a predictable torrent of abuse, it is instructive to consider this from Simon:
"Benteke, Zaha, McArthur, Tomkins, Dann, Cabaye, Schlupp and Puncheon all have fewer goals than we would expect given the opportunities they have had. While there will be some difference in finishing ability between recognised strikers and the rest, the data suggests that this is very small indeed (primarily because you don't often have your lumbering centre back running through one-on-one with the keeper or your 5' 6" midfielder trying to get on the end of crosses). Basically players get the sorts of chances they always get and thus score over the long term as many as our data suggests they will."
Simon suggests that Benteke's lack of goals is temporary, and that we should be patient. He says:
"At Liverpool in 2015/2016 he should have scored 10 goals and got 9.
At Palace last season, he should have had 16 but scored 15.
At Palace this season, he should have scored 11 or 12 but has 2.
I've seen this pattern before, albeit perhaps not so extreme and [goal scorers] always bounce back. Selling him would mean:
a) Getting less than he is really worth
b) Probably losing a top quality striker"
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