Might seem a bit early to discuss this considering polling hasn't closed yet, but as the likelihood is a hung parliament with the current coalition not able to form a majority, all the talk in politico circles is now about what will happen next.
According to media reports, Cameron will try to reform the coalition as a minority government and wait until Parliament reopens on 27th May, when the Queen's speech is set to be put forward.
The maths of him being able to pass a Queens speech is unfathomable if the polls are anywhere near true, but the plan is apparently to cling on to power while the media puts pressure on Labour MPs to prop them up by voting for their legislation. The argument To view the link you have to Register or Login is that any Labour minority government would be 'illegitimate' if Labour won fewer seats than the Tories.
The counter argument to this is that it would be far more illegitimate for Tory government to seek to rule without a majority in favour of its parliamentary program. To view the link you have to Register or Login have already described such an attempt as To view the link you have to Register or Login.
That such an attempt to hold onto power is unconstitutional is backed up by precedent, according to this piece by barrister Carl Gardner:
The success of Cameron's strategy I expect will hinge on two factors:
First, obviously, the election result. If the maths is so far against Cameron, Labour edge either the national vote or win more seats, there's little chance of succeeding.
The other factor is what happens within the Labour party. There's been lots of talk about whether Miliband will stand up to the SNP, but the real question may be will he stand up to Cameron and the Tory press? Even Blairite elements within the Labour Party are likely to put pressure on him to prop up the Tories if Labour fail to win a majority.
Oh, and there's also 'public opinion'.
Interesting times!
According to media reports, Cameron will try to reform the coalition as a minority government and wait until Parliament reopens on 27th May, when the Queen's speech is set to be put forward.
The maths of him being able to pass a Queens speech is unfathomable if the polls are anywhere near true, but the plan is apparently to cling on to power while the media puts pressure on Labour MPs to prop them up by voting for their legislation. The argument To view the link you have to Register or Login is that any Labour minority government would be 'illegitimate' if Labour won fewer seats than the Tories.
The counter argument to this is that it would be far more illegitimate for Tory government to seek to rule without a majority in favour of its parliamentary program. To view the link you have to Register or Login have already described such an attempt as To view the link you have to Register or Login.
That such an attempt to hold onto power is unconstitutional is backed up by precedent, according to this piece by barrister Carl Gardner:
Quote:
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Is the PM entitled to carry on, even if it’s clear he himself will have no majority, until someone else succeeds in achieving one? Many have I think been misled by the events of 2010 into thinking so. But actually it’s the existing Prime Minister’s loss of a majority that is decisive. It remains the case that by convention he must resign once it’s clear he no longer has one: whether anyone else does is irrelevant. To view the link you have to Register or Login |
First, obviously, the election result. If the maths is so far against Cameron, Labour edge either the national vote or win more seats, there's little chance of succeeding.
The other factor is what happens within the Labour party. There's been lots of talk about whether Miliband will stand up to the SNP, but the real question may be will he stand up to Cameron and the Tory press? Even Blairite elements within the Labour Party are likely to put pressure on him to prop up the Tories if Labour fail to win a majority.
Oh, and there's also 'public opinion'.
Interesting times!
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