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I genuinely can't see a way out of this situation. We can't remain because of the social and political catastrophe of rejecting the ref.But we can't leave, because of the social, political and economic catastrophe. The Tory leadership is the ultimate poisoned chalice We'll be left with whichever Tory is so incapable they would never otherwise have a chance at it, and want some reckless glory The Labour Party can't take over because Corbyn cannot carry his PLP, which is what is needed in this moment of crisis But the only candidate the PLP will accept is a second gen. Blairite, who cannot have the tools or leverage to cope with Brexit implications UKIP have all the soft power of a victory, but none of the infrastructure or apparatus to actually take power at all The only options for action beyond are trade unions, Army, Crown or the EU (in the negative, forcing hands)At the centre of a British state is a vacuum of power, a hamstrung civil service, and all 3rd party actors waiting to see Nothing is off the table in this moment of crisis. E.g. if truckers decided to block the pumps this week, a military coup is on the cards We're in a moment of absolute crisis in which the boldest actor could take the house: but all our assumptions about who that is have flipped Also unlikely but still feasible - a new populist force promising to enforce Brexit through extraparliamentary means, or, even less likely, a trade union led response to act in order to steady British industry or to force a political response. Who knows? All we really know is there's one intelligent answer supported by nearly all actors; we cancel Brexit. But there's no way to sell to public We're colossally ****ed. There's no way out. 3 decades of chickens, home to roost in a single night. I realise these all seem like impossible fantasies - but can you point me to another way out of what is now a constitutional crisis? Britain is essentially operating without a legitimate or functional government, nor a functioning opposition right now. Anyone with half a plan can and will take the initiative here to wrest control of the agenda. Right now, thats just the SNP it seems. Because an unwritten constitution is still a constitution, but one that relies on functioning institutions, which we're losing quickly The problem here is that Hannah, Farage, Boris, Gove all campaigned on a platform which they never intended to deliver Their "plan" was soft Brexit - major austerity, no lower immigration figures, some sort of EAA agreement and free movement But to achieve it they let believers in Hard Brexit - closed borders, £350m for NHS etc - think these were the terms. It's impossible to run our financial services-based economy on the terms of hard Brexit, but it was hard Brexit wot won it This is why I can't see way out - no feasible way to bring along Hard Brexiteers along, but no way to make country work on Hard Brexit terms I'm a total amateur and just thinking out loud here, but to me the most likely way out of Hard Brexit seems a combination of the Crown and a government of national unity. Basically the Referendum has delivered a Leave mandate that no political organisation is able or willing to enact. That's the crisis. |
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