Now I know xG is a stat some people do not like but for those that do......
Our current xGA, the number of goals we should have expected to concede from the opportunities we have given up, is the 3rd best in the league, only behind Man City and Chelsea! However we are the worst performing team in the division on this measure though, having conceded almost 5 more goals than would have been expected.
So why? it is not that we are playing badly in terms of restricting the opposition, we are. We are not giving up many opportunities, certainly good ones, so why are we conceding? Is it just bad luck that they are going in?
If we look at Burnley it is a great example. The 3 goals they scored came from chances rates as 0.08, 0.06 and 0.06. Across all their 15 shots they amazed and xG of just 1.04 yet scored 3.
The first 2 right in at the post, the 3rd a worldie that 9 times out of 10 goes nowhere near the goal.
Bad luck, or poor play?
Our current xGA, the number of goals we should have expected to concede from the opportunities we have given up, is the 3rd best in the league, only behind Man City and Chelsea! However we are the worst performing team in the division on this measure though, having conceded almost 5 more goals than would have been expected.
So why? it is not that we are playing badly in terms of restricting the opposition, we are. We are not giving up many opportunities, certainly good ones, so why are we conceding? Is it just bad luck that they are going in?
If we look at Burnley it is a great example. The 3 goals they scored came from chances rates as 0.08, 0.06 and 0.06. Across all their 15 shots they amazed and xG of just 1.04 yet scored 3.
The first 2 right in at the post, the 3rd a worldie that 9 times out of 10 goes nowhere near the goal.
Bad luck, or poor play?
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