I thought it would be worthwhile looking back at the polls in more detail going back two years or so. I am using the “Politico” poll of polls, and have repeated the link throughout this post for convenience, as it is rather long. NB: You have to select the "2 Year" option tab at the top of the chart for the purpose of the text below.
This is the best reference for comparison purposes as it averages out all the polls and eliminates the outliers. This takes us back to July 2019. Firstly, in early July, we may have all forgotten, but there were surprisingly four parties with a more or less equal share of the vote. On July 23rd 2019, Labour was at 23%, the Tories on 22%, Reform UK(ex UKIP) on 21%, and the Lib Dems on 19%. We can surely assume that by combining the RFUK with the Tory vote we have largely those who wanted to get Brexit done, providing 43% of the vote.
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The RFUK party, at least in my view, existed as a pressure group party to ensure the Tories did not sway away from leaving the EU, or negotiate a BINO. Corbyn’s Labour was not doing well compared to their historical average share, and seemingly, a large chunk of their votes drifted over to the pro remain, LibDems. In other words, it was all about Brexit. Corbyn’s wooly policy on this, didn’t help Labour either. How much of the drift amounted to a dislike of Corbyn back then, we can never know. All we can know is that in the post election and doorstep feedback surveys, Brexit and a dislike of Corbyn were the top two reasons for people voting the way they did.
By the end of July that year, the Tories began to retrieve votes back from RFUK, as Johnson was elected the new Tory leader, and on a strong get Brexit done ticket. Labour and the LibDem’s vote were virtually unchanged.
By the 2019 December general election however, the Tory’s had re-gained nearly all of the RFUK switchers, and the latter was hardly registering on the chart. Labour did regain a chunk of the LibDem vote, but not enough to make much of a difference. The polls showed an average of 44% for the Tories, 32% for Labour, just 12% for the LibDems, and for RFUK just 2%. Clearly in my view, two things happened. Firstly, and its not rocket science I know, Brexit polarised the vote back to the Tories, and secondly, traditional loyalties to Labour when in the polling booths, helped them a bit as the election approached. These poll averages would not reflect tactical voting though, but nevertheless are an indication of the public mood back then.
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So, Labour failed big time, and Corbyn resigned. Tory lead in the polls continued to rise to a heady 51% by the time Starmer was elected in early April 2020. The pandemic and government actions had placed the country on a virtual wartime footing, lockdown was in place, furlough money was being paid, businesses were given grants and loans, people worked from home in their tens of thousands. Labour’s share of the vote between the general election and Starmers appointment remained steady and unimpressive at around an average of 30%, but then something began to change. In the space of the next four weeks, the Tory lead had fallen dramatically, and by the end of September 2020, it had all but gone. We cannot really know why this happened, except that Starmers personal ratings were high, and Johnson’s were low. Johnson’s public approval worsened in the autumn and finally the debacle over family gatherings at Christmas against the background of rising covid cases, he sank to his lowest to date. Labour probably did have a small lead by then.
The cavalry, in the form of the AZ and the Pfizer vaccine roll out heralded a turn in Tory fortunes, and from January this year, when the publicity and images of the elderly getting jabs in their arms, from March their vote share steadied at a level of 42% on average, and remains at that level today. Nothing much happened over this same period with the minor parties' share, all staying low at around between 3%-7%. This increase in Tory share seems to have all come from the Labour side. Note however, that the Tory lead in this poll of polls average has never exceeded 11%. This means that given a floating vote mass of say 10%, it could very easily swing back to favour Labour again.
This post is not to provide light on why Starmer’s Labour is not doing better than it should, but merely to demonstrate how over the last two years, two major unprecedented events can affect public opinion on voting intentions. Look at how Brexit distorted the polls back in the summer of 2019. If you accept that as a truism, and I think the evidence is so compelling as to not be open for debate, then surely, you have to look at the distortions of the pandemic and its current role in the mood of voters.
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This is the best reference for comparison purposes as it averages out all the polls and eliminates the outliers. This takes us back to July 2019. Firstly, in early July, we may have all forgotten, but there were surprisingly four parties with a more or less equal share of the vote. On July 23rd 2019, Labour was at 23%, the Tories on 22%, Reform UK(ex UKIP) on 21%, and the Lib Dems on 19%. We can surely assume that by combining the RFUK with the Tory vote we have largely those who wanted to get Brexit done, providing 43% of the vote.
To view the link you have to Register or Login
The RFUK party, at least in my view, existed as a pressure group party to ensure the Tories did not sway away from leaving the EU, or negotiate a BINO. Corbyn’s Labour was not doing well compared to their historical average share, and seemingly, a large chunk of their votes drifted over to the pro remain, LibDems. In other words, it was all about Brexit. Corbyn’s wooly policy on this, didn’t help Labour either. How much of the drift amounted to a dislike of Corbyn back then, we can never know. All we can know is that in the post election and doorstep feedback surveys, Brexit and a dislike of Corbyn were the top two reasons for people voting the way they did.
By the end of July that year, the Tories began to retrieve votes back from RFUK, as Johnson was elected the new Tory leader, and on a strong get Brexit done ticket. Labour and the LibDem’s vote were virtually unchanged.
By the 2019 December general election however, the Tory’s had re-gained nearly all of the RFUK switchers, and the latter was hardly registering on the chart. Labour did regain a chunk of the LibDem vote, but not enough to make much of a difference. The polls showed an average of 44% for the Tories, 32% for Labour, just 12% for the LibDems, and for RFUK just 2%. Clearly in my view, two things happened. Firstly, and its not rocket science I know, Brexit polarised the vote back to the Tories, and secondly, traditional loyalties to Labour when in the polling booths, helped them a bit as the election approached. These poll averages would not reflect tactical voting though, but nevertheless are an indication of the public mood back then.
To view the link you have to Register or Login
So, Labour failed big time, and Corbyn resigned. Tory lead in the polls continued to rise to a heady 51% by the time Starmer was elected in early April 2020. The pandemic and government actions had placed the country on a virtual wartime footing, lockdown was in place, furlough money was being paid, businesses were given grants and loans, people worked from home in their tens of thousands. Labour’s share of the vote between the general election and Starmers appointment remained steady and unimpressive at around an average of 30%, but then something began to change. In the space of the next four weeks, the Tory lead had fallen dramatically, and by the end of September 2020, it had all but gone. We cannot really know why this happened, except that Starmers personal ratings were high, and Johnson’s were low. Johnson’s public approval worsened in the autumn and finally the debacle over family gatherings at Christmas against the background of rising covid cases, he sank to his lowest to date. Labour probably did have a small lead by then.
The cavalry, in the form of the AZ and the Pfizer vaccine roll out heralded a turn in Tory fortunes, and from January this year, when the publicity and images of the elderly getting jabs in their arms, from March their vote share steadied at a level of 42% on average, and remains at that level today. Nothing much happened over this same period with the minor parties' share, all staying low at around between 3%-7%. This increase in Tory share seems to have all come from the Labour side. Note however, that the Tory lead in this poll of polls average has never exceeded 11%. This means that given a floating vote mass of say 10%, it could very easily swing back to favour Labour again.
This post is not to provide light on why Starmer’s Labour is not doing better than it should, but merely to demonstrate how over the last two years, two major unprecedented events can affect public opinion on voting intentions. Look at how Brexit distorted the polls back in the summer of 2019. If you accept that as a truism, and I think the evidence is so compelling as to not be open for debate, then surely, you have to look at the distortions of the pandemic and its current role in the mood of voters.
To view the link you have to Register or Login
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