Roy - tactical genius

I posted this in the daftly named 'Hodgson Out' thread with SG's approval - and Simon has suggested that it might justify a thread of its own. I agree. It amazes me that there are still some who doubt Roy's tactical brilliance. For those few, they should note the following from Simon Gleave (Head of Analysis at To view the link you have to Register or Login) -

"Looking at the quality and frequency of the opportunities Manchester City had, these tactics from Palace reduced City's expected goals (yes, I know it isn't perfect) to the lowest level it has been in any match this season, home or away. Obviously if you can do this, you increase your chance of winning massively.

A draw was probably the most likely result when looking at chances but if we assume Palace had about a 4% to 5% chance of winning this before the match started, these tactics probably increased that to something like 25-30% which is some difference.

Palace have also done this twice now so it is not luck that Hodgson has managed to reduce the firepower that City have with his tactics. Manchester City's lowest expected goals for a match under Pep Guardiola are:

Liverpool (A) 2016/2017 L 0-1
Burnley (H) 2016/2017 W 2-1
Palace (A) 2017/2018 D 0-0
Stoke City (H) 2016/2017 D 0-0
Chelsea (A) 2017/2018 W 1-0
Huddersfield (H) 2017/2018 D 0-0
Everton (A) 2016/2017 L 0-4
Chelsea (H) 2017/2018 W 1-0
Southampton (A) 2017/2018 W 1-0
Palace (H) 2018/2019 L 2-3
Arsenal (A) 2016/2017 D 2-2
Liverpool (A) 2018/2019 D 0-0"