I am not alone in being a bit of a broken record on this at the minute but I am really worried about the state of our current squad and it's ongoing management with regard to this and next season. The transfer thread seems to be the right place to look at it because the conclusions are all about the ins and outs. I should add that this is as clinical as I can get it and so it will no doubt sound harsh but it's trying to be factual.
The current 25+ (according to tfr thread) has 11 players that will leave us unless new contracts are offered. So almost half of the squad will naturally turnover without incoming fees. This includes 2 Loan players. The players potentially leaving are: Speroni, Delaney, Cabaye, Hennessey, McArthur, Sako, Lee, Ward, KaiKai, Loftus-Cheek, Fosu-Mensah.
For reference that leaves: Puncheon, Dann, Tomkins, Sakho, Kelly, Souare, PVA, Milivojevic, Townsend, Mutch, Zaha, Schlupp, Riedewald, Wickham and Benteke. Probably worth noting that Mutch appears to have left for all intents and purposes and so he should probably be moved to the first group but that does assume we can move him on. Without action we will have 0 keepers, 7 defenders, 6 midfielders (excl Mutch), 2 strikers (a luxury if fit). Within those defenders would be 3 LBs and no RB.
Out of the 25+, 9 players will be over 30 before the next season (7 of those overlap with leavers) and so unlikely to be offered long, if any contracts. If we stay in the Premier I would expect KaiKai to leave. If we are relegated he may get a reprieve and also Joniesta would likely return?
If relegated, of those in contract I assume Townsend, Zaha, Benteke and Sakho would be targeted by other clubs and we might want to move on due to wages. Wickham also but without any playing time this seems less likely. I guess if the nightmare of relegation was to arrive it could be said we have planned this nicely :( because slashing the wage bill looks quite achievable with 3 or 4 sales. Replacing the leaving players does look to me like a nightmare whether we stay up or not. Without looking back too much, this really is the result of 4 relegation struggles and the reallocation of funds to 'bigger name players' and rollercoaster of Managers/Management. This thread is more about looking forward.
So while today's job is survival what context will our Jan window have because the division and this squad refresh challenge ? It's difficult to summarise and easier perhaps to look at the Summer window in 2 ways with survival or relegation and then work back to December. I have some thoughts about this but will post later. Best to post the data first.
As a hint, even an early glance at this pushed me straight out of the 'ideal' into the pragmatic which will I think re-signing some players we might ideally like to let go at the risk of longer contracts than are wise. But Premiership prices and our inability to bring players in from abroad at good prices to date) will force this I think. Replacing Cabaye will be really tough.
The relegation scenario ironically might be easier to re-stock for in theory but really tough to bounce back from.
The current 25+ (according to tfr thread) has 11 players that will leave us unless new contracts are offered. So almost half of the squad will naturally turnover without incoming fees. This includes 2 Loan players. The players potentially leaving are: Speroni, Delaney, Cabaye, Hennessey, McArthur, Sako, Lee, Ward, KaiKai, Loftus-Cheek, Fosu-Mensah.
For reference that leaves: Puncheon, Dann, Tomkins, Sakho, Kelly, Souare, PVA, Milivojevic, Townsend, Mutch, Zaha, Schlupp, Riedewald, Wickham and Benteke. Probably worth noting that Mutch appears to have left for all intents and purposes and so he should probably be moved to the first group but that does assume we can move him on. Without action we will have 0 keepers, 7 defenders, 6 midfielders (excl Mutch), 2 strikers (a luxury if fit). Within those defenders would be 3 LBs and no RB.
Out of the 25+, 9 players will be over 30 before the next season (7 of those overlap with leavers) and so unlikely to be offered long, if any contracts. If we stay in the Premier I would expect KaiKai to leave. If we are relegated he may get a reprieve and also Joniesta would likely return?
If relegated, of those in contract I assume Townsend, Zaha, Benteke and Sakho would be targeted by other clubs and we might want to move on due to wages. Wickham also but without any playing time this seems less likely. I guess if the nightmare of relegation was to arrive it could be said we have planned this nicely :( because slashing the wage bill looks quite achievable with 3 or 4 sales. Replacing the leaving players does look to me like a nightmare whether we stay up or not. Without looking back too much, this really is the result of 4 relegation struggles and the reallocation of funds to 'bigger name players' and rollercoaster of Managers/Management. This thread is more about looking forward.
So while today's job is survival what context will our Jan window have because the division and this squad refresh challenge ? It's difficult to summarise and easier perhaps to look at the Summer window in 2 ways with survival or relegation and then work back to December. I have some thoughts about this but will post later. Best to post the data first.
As a hint, even an early glance at this pushed me straight out of the 'ideal' into the pragmatic which will I think re-signing some players we might ideally like to let go at the risk of longer contracts than are wise. But Premiership prices and our inability to bring players in from abroad at good prices to date) will force this I think. Replacing Cabaye will be really tough.
The relegation scenario ironically might be easier to re-stock for in theory but really tough to bounce back from.
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