Came across a very interesting(at least to me) article in The Athletic on how each PL team moves the ball:
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(The last statistical series of posts we had spanned several pages of the PV general discussion thread which made me think that a dedicated thread could prove useful.)
We've all witnessed the visually improved style which places a greater emphasis on possession which has seen both our offensive and defensive numbers improve. PV's done a great job as a summary, I don't need to expand upon that.
This article has a few graphics and rankings which could spark an interesting discussion about where we are as a team, what is says about our strengths, weaknesses and areas we should be looking to improve upon next season.
I'll list the key takeaways in bullet points for clarity for those who do not have a subscription:
Main Points
- We rank 10th for average possession at 51.5%.
- We rank 11th for median passes per sequence of possession at 3.2 (a series of passes which ends up in an interception, the ball going out of play, dispossession, or a shot.)
- Only 3 teams have slower build up than us (Man C, Arsenal and Brighton)
- We rank 17th for % of passing sequences that progress into the final third with just 37% of our attempts doing so.(Man City are top by a long way at 57%)
- We rank 18th with just 7% of our possession sequences ending in a shot. Man City have 13%. (There are a lot of teams that have 7-9% above us.)
- We are 5th for xG/shot at 0.13. Man City (top), have 0.14
My take-aways. The cliché of "possession only counts if you do something with it" comes to mind. It's worth noting that our possession does play a big part in us preventing our opponents from creating chances. We've been very solid defensively, especially in open play this season. That being said, it seems to me that we aren't moving the ball as quick as PV would like to, this is something he alluded to in the win vs Watford. We do, however, create good quality chances, as represented by our xG/shot. The area of concern seems to be the regularity that this occurs as evidenced by just 7% of our passing sequences ending in a shot and just 37% of sequences ending in the final third. Both statistics are low relative to the rest of the league.
How to improve?
I'd argue this is a personnel issue, rather than a tactical one. Firstly, I'd be very keen to see these numbers with Olise in the team compared to when he is out of the team. His creativity is the best in the squad, but due to his age, has only played a bit part role. Next season, he will be undisputed first choice. Our lack of progression to passing sequences that end in shots could be explained by some of the more technically limited players recruited to play a different system under a different manager. Ward, Clyne, Kouyate and Ayew have played a lot this season, but a look at their profiles on FBref shows you their limitations for progressing the ball, passing accurately, and producing shot creating actions relative to others who play in their position.
FBref Profile of named players
Kouyate:
Ward:
Clyne:
Olise:
Targets for 2022/23
This ties into a Tweet CalcioCarl made about the areas we are looking at being:
RB, DM, CM (Gallagher replacement) and a GK as the high priority areas. It's clear to see how a superiorly technical DM and RB would see us progress the ball into the final third more frequently and therefor, see more of our possession sequences end in shots. The average quality of shots we take appears to be good, it's more of a frequency thing. If we can maintain the same defensive solidarity whilst improving those things, I'm very optimistic about next season.
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