A statistician friend of mine has sent me the following analysis:
"Interestingly, different teams need different numbers of points because of the interplay in the fixtures. So, for example, Palace have more than 50% chance of staying up if they manage 34 points whereas the same number of points for Sunderland gives the mackems only a 30% chance of survival. For Palace the figures are as follows:
31 points - 3%
32 points - 10%
33 points - 26%
34 points - 53%
35 points - 78%
36 points - 92%
37 points - 97%
38 points - 99%"
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"Interestingly, different teams need different numbers of points because of the interplay in the fixtures. So, for example, Palace have more than 50% chance of staying up if they manage 34 points whereas the same number of points for Sunderland gives the mackems only a 30% chance of survival. For Palace the figures are as follows:
31 points - 3%
32 points - 10%
33 points - 26%
34 points - 53%
35 points - 78%
36 points - 92%
37 points - 97%
38 points - 99%"
To view the link you have to Register or Login is the analysis in full.
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